Since our By the Numbers piece two weeks ago, we have been hit by mainstream media with headlines suggesting that US will be engulfed by the second surge of coronavirus if decisive actions are not taken. In addition, hospitals are portrayed to reach critical capacity suggesting another New York crises is brewing. Before we tackle these sensational headlines with the data available, the recent comment below by Dr. Fauci gives clarity on what we can realistically expect, plan, and act.
In that statement alone, we understand the below important points.
- We cannot control the spread of the virus. How does one control the spread of a virus that shows no symptoms in a significant portion of the infected population?
- We cannot trace effectively the spread of the virus. How does one trace the spread of an “invisible” virus?
- From the right optics, we are thrilled to hear a significant portion of the infected population have no symptoms. This is very good news. We already know from the patient data collected over the past months that the “vulnerable” group comprise the elderly and people with pre-existing conditions. This is also very good news as we know whom we need to protect.
When we carry these understandings and look at the recent surge in COVID-19 infections, we see the picture with a completely different view from the “Second Coming of New York City”. Shown below are the “Testing” data and the “Death” data for the last three months in US. In the “Testing” left graph, “New Tests” have grown significantly from 100K tests daily at the beginning of April to almost 600K tests daily now. “% New Positives” (New Positives per New Tests daily) have decreased significantly over the past three months and is beginning to increase modestly now. In the “Death” right graph, “New Deaths” have decreased over the past three months, too. This is very good news.
Shown below are the analyses performed for the three states in hot seat now—Texas, Florida, and Arizona.
Yes, there have been surges in new infections in Texas, Florida, and Arizona. At the same time, the most important number, “New Deaths”, remains statistically flat. This is the number that we need to focus on as we continue in our re-opening efforts. In Texas, a significant number of new infections are attributed to people in their 20s.[i] In Florida, the median age of COVID-19 patients is 37 compared to 60s months ago.[ii] In Arizona, 60% of all cases are younger than 44 compared to 40% at the start of May.[iii]
The data tells us a high number of young people are resuming their normal life with greater social interactions. There are more testing available and we see a higher number of new COVID-19 cases. These are to be expected. What is not to be expected is the alarm bell ringing in a catastrophe that is not based on science and data. The young and healthy people will walk away from their COVID-19 infection as they do with a summer cold or the flu. That is what the science and data tells us and that is what we need to subscribe. We need to stand firm on the side of science and data because they are not arbitrary. They are our only guides to a successful re-opening and return to normalcy!
*Data from COVID Tracking Project; 7 per. Mov. Avg. = 7 Day Mov. Avg.
[i] https://www.texastribune.org/2020/06/16/texas-coronavirus-spike-young-adults/
[ii] https://www.wptv.com/news/state/florida-gov-ron-desantis-to-give-coronavirus-update-at-florida-international-university
[iii] https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/local/arizona-health/2020/06/24/more-younger-people-getting-covid-19-since-stay-home-order-ended/3246845001/