In the second part of our risk assessment, we examine the health risk COVID-19 presents to the individual. From the data accumulated by CDC thus far (reporting period of 2/1 to 5/9, updated on 5/13), we could categorize the deaths based on age and sex. The “provisional” numbers are shown in Table 1 and Chart 1.
These numbers are “provisional” meaning there is still work-in-progress to properly assign the primary cause of death to COVID-19. The “final” numbers are published by CDC some time later as death data verification has to be performed. The “age group” analysis for two benchmark age groups are shown in Table 2. Over 90% of all COVID-19 deaths are from people 55 years and older and 80% of all COVID-19 deaths are from people 65 years and over.
COVID-19 deaths categorized by sex and age distributions are shown in Chart 2 and Table 3. There is a slightly higher number of deaths from males compared with females. In addition, there is a lower mortality risk for females in the younger age groups compared with males.
The most accessible data for COVID-19 deaths categorized by pre-existing conditions (co-morbidities is the term used commonly in the medical community) comes from New York State. The top pre-existing conditions found in nearly 23,000 patients who died in New York are shown in Table 4 and Chart 3.
The top three pre-existing conditions that make a patient more susceptible to death from COVID-19 are: 1) hypertension, 2) diabetes, and 3) coronary artery related diseases. Other chronic conditions such as dementia, renal disease (kidney disease), and COPD (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease) are prevalent, too. Immunocompromised condition such as cancer also lead to increased risk of COVID-19 death, but not to as significant level as the chronic conditions mentioned before. 90% of patients who died in New York had at least one pre-existing condition.
The key findings from these data are:
- The majority of COVID-19 deaths come from our elderly population and people with pre-existing conditions. The majority of people in our workforce do not fit in this vulnerable class; over three-quarter of our workforce (full-time and part-time) are under 55 (US Bureau of Labor Statistics).
- Young children (up to 14 years old) have negligible risk of death from COVID-19. Pediatric deaths from COVID-19 are at least 10x less than those from influenza.
- Deeper risk assessment for an individual is feasible through a detailed health examination. Whereas “age” is a general risk barometer, the health history of an individual including the presence of any “pre-existing condition” gives a more precise assessment of the risk from COVID-19.